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 volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average

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Rederoin
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PostSubject: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-06-23, 09:18

Will be updated once v1s start coming out



V1 -> V2/V3(depending on when it drops).


*5.5k -> *1.3k Kamigami no Asobi(down -76%)(6 volumes)
59.4k -> 26.5k Love Live 2nd season(down -56%)(7 volumes)
14.5k -> *6.6k Haikyuu!!(v3 goes down -54%)(9 volumes)
*3.0k -> *1.3k Captain Earth(down -53%)(9 volumes)
*3.6k -> *2.5k Mekaku City Actords(down -31%)(12 volumes)
*4.4k -> *3.4k Isshuukan Friends(down -23%)(6 volumes)
*5.8k -> *5.9k No Game No Life(does not go down)(6 volumes)
*7.2k -> *8.4k Gochuisa(v3 does not go down)(6 volumes)

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Last edited by Rederoin on 2014-06-27, 06:41; edited 2 times in total
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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-06-24, 03:21

Estimated drops going by the sales numbers.


1st update





Mahouka

83% frontloaded(v1)

Made after v2

v1 - 12.4k
v2 - 13.5k
v3 - 11.1k
v4-9 - 9.4k
Average - 10.3k



Black Bullet


made after v3

v1 - 3.2k
v2 - 2.6k
v3 - 2.4k
v4 - 2.2k
v5 - 2.0k
v6 - 1.9k
Average - 2.4k



Love Live

82.1k -> 36.1k Love Live 2nd season (first week)


v1 - 91.2k
v2-7 - 40.1k
Average - 47.4k

Its within range of beating SnK, but chances are it'll need another event ticket for it to reach 50k.   On the other hand, it could also drop below 45k, kinda hard to tell untill we get the real v2 numbers next month.  But once those are out, I think we can ballpark the LL S2 average.


Gochuisa
it turns out v1 was less front-loaded than expected.

*7.9k -> *9.2k(v3) (first week)
Gochuisa

v1-2 - 8.8k
v3-6 - 10.2k
Average - 9.7k


This estimation is wrong, i'll just change it when v3 comes out.


Mekaku City Actors

*9.1k -> *6.3k(first week)

v1 - 10.1k
v2-12 - 7.0k
Average - 7.3k

I have no idea where this will end up because of the release system


Haikyuu!!

24.7k ->  11.4k(v3)(first week)

v1-2 - 27.4k
v3-9 - 12.7k
Average - 16.0k


Because this is 2-cour, the sales migth be going up while its still airing(see : Kill La Kill), so this is rather hard to ball park


Captain earth

*2.1k -> *1.0k(first week)

v1 - 2.3k
v2-9 - 1.0k(I don't think it'll rank a 2nd week)
Average - 1.1k

A complete disaster because of the event ticket drop


Kamigami no Asobi

v1 - 7.2k
v2-6 - 1.7k
Average -  2.6k


Atleast its not a complete disaster because of the event ticket



2nd update



Love Live 2nd season


106.0k -> 41.9k  (first week)


v1 - 106.0k
v2-7 - 46.5k
Average - 55.0k

Seems like it will beat SnK


Kamigami no Asobi

6.6k -> 3.5k(first week)


v1 - 7.2k
v2-6 - 3.9k
Average - 4.4k

The drop is not as bad as expected.  


Mekaku City Actors


v1 - 11.3k
v2 - 8.7k
v3-12 - 8.0k
Average - 8.3k

I'll just keep updating this one.


Escha & Logy no Atelier ~Tasogare no Sora no Renkinjutsushi~


v1 - 2.0k
v2-6 - 0.7k
Average - 0.9k


Captain Earth


v1 - 2.3k
v2-9 - 1.1k
Average - 1.2k

Gochuisa

77% frontloaded


v1 - 12.1k
v2-6 - 11.2k
Average - 11.4k



No Game No Life


v1 - 9.9k
v2 - 8.7k
v3-6 - 8.0k
Average - 8.4k




3rd update for certain series



Mekaku City Actors

82% frontloaded

v1 - 11.4k
v2 - 8.8k
v3 - 8.0k
v4 - 7.0k
v5 - 6.1k
v6 - 5.3k
v8 - 4.6k
v9 - 4.0k
v10 - 3.5k
v11 - 3.0k
v12 - 2.6k
Average - 5.4k(previous averages, 7.3k -> 8.3k)



4th update for certain series



Mekaku City Actors

Average - 6.4k

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-06-24, 04:36

Gochuisa will now be added

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-07-01, 03:42

Time to add 'Mekaku City Actors'

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-07-26, 06:34

Added some new series.

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-07-30, 01:18

love live was updated.

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-08-05, 04:23

Going by the 75% frontloaded estimate/theory and stalkers performance of v3 for JoJo P3, i'm going to bet on this average(I added a extra 20% drop because of its length/price/lack of a noticeable drop on Amazon).

12.1k(v1 & v2) ->  9.2k(the average of v3-12)


V1-2 - 16.1k
V3-12 -  12.3k(the average of v3-12)
Average -  12.9k(155.2k copies in total)

This ofcourse is going with that arbitrary drop I made up, but its not possible to predict its drop right now.  Its also a lot more expansive than most series, so we can't really compare it to anything.


If v3 trough v12 have a 8.8k average, it'll hit a 10k average.

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-08-07, 07:04

Updated.

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-08-18, 03:23

Escha & Logy no Atelier ~Tasogare no Sora no Renkinjutsushi~ added

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-08-19, 04:12

MCA is updated.

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-08-28, 12:55

Cap. Earth updated.

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-09-03, 08:25

Gochiusa was updated.

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-09-03, 12:28

NGNL was updated.

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-09-09, 01:38

NGNL added.

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PostSubject: Re: volume 2 drops v5 & estimated series average   2014-09-09, 04:55

Added Mahouka and Black bullet.

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