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 Estimates v2.

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Rederoin
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PostSubject: Estimates v2.   2014-05-05, 07:12

21 April -> 5 May




  • 64.0k -> 47.2k Love Live! 2nd season**
  • *9.1k -> 13.8k Haikyuu!
  • ---------------10k---------------------
  • **.*k -> *8.5k Mushishi S2
  • 10.0k -> *7.2k Mahouka Koukou no Rettousei
  • *4.0k -> *6.2k Sidonia no Kishi
  • *2.3k -> *5.5k Kamigami no Asobi*
  • ---------------*5k---------------------
  • **.*k -> *4.4k Gochuumon wa Usagi Desu ka?
  • *4.7k -> *4.1k Date a Live II
  • *2.7k -> *3.7k Captain Earth
  • **.*k -> *3.4k Ping Pong The Animation
  • *5.6k -> *3.3k Kenzen Robo Daimidaler
  • **.*k -> *3.1k Mekaku city actors
  • *2.7k -> *3.1k Isshuukan Friends
  • ---------------*3k---------------------
  • *3.3k -> *2.8k No Game No Life
  • **.*k -> *2.7k Black Bullet
  • *3.0k -> *2.3k Puchimas!!: Petit Petit iDOLM@STER
  • *1.9k -> *2.1k Gokukoku no Brynhild
  • *1.2k -> *1.9k Hitsugi no Chaika
  • *1.4k -> *1.8k Escha & Logy no Atelier
  • *1.7k Break Blade(TV)
  • *2.3k -> *1.7k Bokura wa Minna Kawaisou
  • *1.6k -> *1.5k Kanojo ga Flag wo Oraretara
  • **.*k -> *1.1k Ryuugajou Nanana no Maizoukin
  • **.*k -> *1.0k Inugami-san to Nekoyama-san
  • *1.0k -> *0.8k Mangaka-san to Assistant-san to
  • *0.9k -> *0.8k Akuma no Riddle
  • *1.3k -> *0.8k Soul Eater : Not!
  • *0.7k -> *0.7k Seikoku no Dragonar
  • *0.7k -> *0.6k Blade & Soul
  • *0.7k -> *0.4k Fuuun Ishin Dai☆Shogun
  • **.*k -> *0.4k M3



*Has a huge(75%+) event ticket drop
**After a huge episode boost, it now has an estimate of 94.7k, and it will also have a huge event ticket drop(75%+)


Comments about the estimates will follow later.




  • Selector Infected WIXOSS *Added on 9 May
  • JoJo P3 *Added 10 May



Has not been listed on Amazon yet,



  • Mahou Shoujo TaisenS
  • JoJo's Bizarre Adventure P3 Stardust Crusaders
  • Kiniro no Corda Blue♪Sky
  • Baby steps
  • Soredemo Sekai wa Utsukushii

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Last edited by Rederoin on 2014-05-14, 13:15; edited 3 times in total
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PostSubject: Re: Estimates v2.   2014-05-05, 13:15

I just updated the spring sales estimates on my site.  All of this is based on the current trends on Amazon. Things can still change.

Love Live! has a rather big estimated event ticket drop(50%+), but it that should not stop it from becoming the top seller of Spring.
No stalker data for JoJo P3 yet, but I think we can assume it'll reach 15k+ at worst, and maybe even 25k if part 3 really is as popular in Japan, as they say.
Haikyuu!! has a good chance at 10k+,  if it has the same storefront affect as KnB, 20k+/- for v1 and v2? and then it'll drop down a lot with v3? But who knows by how much? The estimated drop, just like Love Live is rather big(50%+). I mean sure, it has 2 volumes with event tickets, but it also has 9 volumes in total.

Mushishi S2 has a decent chance at getting 10k, if you include w2+ and a slight underestimation or it getting a small sales boost. It has no event ticket, so I don't think we'll see a big drop.

And that does for series that I think have a decent chance at reaching 10k or more.


Mahouka and Sidonia are doing good, but we are talking about a 6-8k~ average, nothing huge.  But still good.


Gochuumon wa Usagi Desu ka? and Date A live II are also doing rather good, just as good as the previous 2.   4-6k~ average, maybe? I'm ofcourse hoping for a higher average for Gochiusa.


Ping Pong The Animation, Kenzen Robo Daimidaler, Mekaku City Actors, Isshuukan Friends, No Game No Life and Black bullet are doing decent(2k-4k~??).  But these kind of sales are nothing special.

Kamigami no Asobi has a big estimated v2 drop of more than 85%, so make sure to remember that when v1 comes out.

Aside from(not on Amazon stalker yet),
Mahou Shoujo Taisen
Selector Infected WIXOSS
Kiniro no Corda Blue♪Sky
Baby steps
Soredemo Sekai wa Utsukushii


All of the series that I did not mention, excluding shorts, are performing horrible on Amazon.

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PostSubject: Re: Estimates v2.   2014-05-14, 13:17

Love Live! had a big episode boost/people ordering it before the pre-orders(for the event ticket) closed down. so I made a note for it.

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PostSubject: Re: Estimates v2.   2014-05-14, 14:15

A bit about love live


Going by stalker, it will have a huge drop. Even if love live keeps it current amazon ranking until release, and it has a +25% storefront affect, it still won't even reach a 50k average.


To go into it a bit deeper, lets assume it'll keep its current ranking, and 90% of its sales are within its first week.

Without a storefront affect,

v1 - 104.8k
v2-7 - 23.5k
Average - 35.1k

With a storefront affect(on average p/volume, it will vary from volume to volme),

10% - 38.6k
20% - 42.1k
50% - 52.6k(It will beat SnK at this point).
80% - 63.2k(Nobody will expect these kind of storefront affects, and its still far below Bakamono)
130% - 80.7k

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PostSubject: Re: Estimates v2.   2014-05-16, 14:05

The Wixoss estimate is up at 16.3k

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